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A normal to above normal tropical cyclone season is predicted for American Samoa

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Source: NWS Pago Pago

Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — The International Research Institute and the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center predicts a neutral ENSO. ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Nino nor La Nina is present.However, some indications point to slightly higher sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific that may elevate chances for a more active tropical cyclone season for American Samoa.

With this scenario, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) typically develops near to just northeast of the Samoan Islands before drifting southwest late in the season. Tropical Cyclones may have a higher chance of developing within 300 nautical miles of the Samoan Islands from December through most of this season.

This outlook is a general guide to the overall Tropical Cyclone season activity near the American Samoan basin (extends to 300 nautical miles from Tutuila) and does not predict whether, or how many, of these systems will directly affect American Samoa. Tropical cyclone season begins November 1 and runs until April 30.

American Samoa will likely see above average activity with a slightly elevated chance above tropical cyclone climatology; fairly consistent with weak El Niño-like conditions. The outlook looks to be 2 to 3 tropical cyclones across the area affecting the Samoan Islands.  Given conditions favoring above normal tropical cyclone activity, we urge residents and mariners to be fully prepared for this tropical cyclone season.

NWS Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) Pago Pago, in collaboration with the Regional Specialised Meteorological Center (RSMC) Nadi, Fiji; Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continuously monitor weather conditions near the territory by using an array of observations, satellite data and output from complex weather computer models that serve as the basis for tropical cyclone tracks and forecasts.

 

 

 

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