Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — The NOAA National Weather Service Pago Pago has confirmed that  El Niño conditions are actively strengthening across the Pacific and will persist through early 2027. 

Key Forecast Highlights (2026–2027)

   •    Rainfall & Drought: An 80% to 90% chance of below-normal rainfall is expected over the coming months, following record-low or well-below-normal rainfall patterns recorded through mid-2026. This increases the risk of prolonged dry spells, declining river flows, reduced groundwater recharge, and pressure on public water supplies.
    •    Temperatures: A 40% to 60% probability of above-normal daytime and nighttime air temperatures, raising concerns for heat-related illnesses, dehydration, and increased electricity demand (including reduced hydropower generation).
    •    Tropical Cyclone Activity: The Samoa region faces an elevated risk during the 2026– 2027 tropical cyclone season (running from November 2026 through April 2027). The SMD forecasts 1 to 3 named cyclones to form or pass within 400 kilometers of Samoa, with at least one potentially reaching Category 3 intensity or higher. 
    •    Secondary Hazards: Even with overall below-normal seasonal rainfall, individual cyclones or severe tropical troughs can still bring sudden heavy downpours, leading to flash floods, landslides, and water contamination. Drier conditions also elevate the risk of grass and forest fires (similar to previous El Niño impacts). 

The warning follows several months of below-normal rainfall, with August recorded as one of the driest months on record.

Most area weather stations recorded normal to below-normal rainfall in July, followed by well-below-normal rainfall in August.

Rainfall levels in September remained normal to below normal.

El Niño is associated with reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures and extended dry periods, which can place additional pressure on communities that depend on reliable water supplies and agricultural production.

Higher temperatures could increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable people.

With the 2026-2027 tropical cyclone season approaching, authorities have also raised concerns about an increased risk of cyclone impacts across the Southwest Pacific.

Households, businesses and village communities are urged to conserve water, protect crops and livestock, and avoid unnecessary burning during dry conditions.

People have also been advised to take precautions against excessive heat.

The American Samoa Drought Information page is on the National Weather Service WFO American Samoa website:  (https://www.weather.gov/ppg/ASdrought_Info)