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ASG Revenue Task Force now has experienced economist on board

Commerce Department's newly recruited economist, Nathaniel ‘Nate’ Clayville speaking at last Thursday’s presentation by the ASG Revenue Task Force, during a briefing of lawmakers on upcoming proposed measures, which would hike some taxes, but repeal others as well as update the local tax code.  [photo: FS]
Experienced with state-level economic data and developing state macroeconomic models
fili@samoanews.com

The Commerce Department has recruited a professional economist, whose first major project since being employed by the American Samoa Government, is working with the government’s Revenue Task Force, which has come up with recommendations to reform current tax laws.

Nathaniel ‘Nate’ Clayville, 34, has been with DOC for about a month now and will be working closely with the Treasury Department and ASG Budget and Planning Office on budget matters, said Commerce Department director Keniseli Lafaele, responding to Samoa News inquiries last Friday.

“Clayville is a professional economist, has several years of experience working with state-level economic data and in developing macroeconomic models for states,” Lafaele said.

His qualifications include advanced statistical/econometric modeling and forecasting, Lafaele continued, adding that Clayville had served as deputy chief economist for the State of Idaho, Executive Office of the Governor, Division of Financial Management.

In his deputy economist post, Clayville maintained the state's economic and revenue forecasting models; produced quarterly economic forecasts for the state, which included forecasting key economic variables, and writing detailed analysis; assisted in developing the state's annual revenue forecast useful for developing the state's annual budget; and tracked and reported on revenue collections each month.

“Nate also has experience in the Energy sector, having worked with industry and governmental stake holders on energy efficiency policies,” said Lafaele.

Aside from his work at the DOC, “Nate will be working closely with Treasury and the Budget Office on budget and revenue matters,” Lafaele explained. “Moreover, he is mentoring my staff who have degrees in economics, or any staff who's interested, in the area of statistical/macro-econometric modeling and forecasting. His contract is for two years, but we aim to keep such expertise as long as possible.”

Clayville was introduced at last Thursday’s Task Force presentation to Fono leaders and several lawmakers during a meeting at the Fono Guest Fale that was attended by Gov. Lolo Matalasi Moliga and several cabinet directors.

The economist spoke during the presentation, outlining the impact of the Task Force’s proposed tax measures to be submitted to the Fono on the local economy, in areas such as personal income which he says is “an important term when we’re looking at physical impacts from tax policy.”

“Personal income, means all the wages, all the income. Any way that the citizens here can derive income and wages,” he explained. “It’s a good indication of the impact because as you raise taxes, or as you give tax relief, you can shift the personal income, especially the disposable personal income. which at the end of the day, this is the amount of money that consumers have to go out and actually spend in the economy.”

“So if you drastically reduce the disposable personal income, you’re going to cut consumption,” he said, of an issue that has always raised concerns from lawmakers when there is a move by the government to raise taxes or impose new ones, that will take money away from the public thereby losing the people’s buying power.

Speaking to Samoa News and KHJ News after the task force presentation-meeting,  Clayville said that prior to taking up the local post, he served as deputy state economist for the state of Idaho.

“I came to American Samoa because I was looking specifically to come to American Samoa,” he said during an impromptu press briefing. “So I started looking around the government and if they have use for someone like me, but I specifically wanted to come here.”

He said American Samoa has a unique characteristic — with such a large government component as well as a cannery.

When asked about his overall assessment of the local economy so far, Clayville said he “needs more assessment time to be able to come up with a really good assessment of the local economy here.”

However, so far, “it looks really promising. It looks like for the last few years or so, we’ve been in a holding pattern... in American Samoa — that’s my guess — looking at it. I think that the way the economy has developed, with the government, the canneries being so big and we have a lot of retails,” he said.

“There are these really defined sections of the economy right now. I think we’re ripe to do some very interesting things for the economy,” he said. “Something like  tax change — where we’re able to change the tax code and reshuffle the deck a little bit, I think we can do a lot for the economy. We’re in this holding pattern, and we can do a lot, kind of shape things up and open up all new kinds of opportunities.”

On a personal side, and perhaps the reason he looked at American Samoa, is that Clayville, who’s faith is the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day-Saints,  grew up in Downey, in  Los Angeles County. “So the church I went to [in Downey], I’m LDS, and the Ward was actually a Samoan LDS Ward that I went to,” he said.