If Thai Union makes a move for Bumble Bee Foods, will parent company of StarKist Samoa, Dongwon Enterprise, likely follow suit? This is the latest question circulating in the highly competitive worldwide tuna industry.

Last week heading the rumor mill as a potential buyer was Tri Marine (now partly owned by food product giant Bolton). But when Samoa News asked vice president of production Dan Sullivan for comments on the rumor Sullivan said, “the rumor is just that — rumor.” Despite his seeming denial, a third possibility tuna insiders are still throwing out is Bolton going for it, and leveraging a full end-to-end, sea to shelf, supply chain through marrying Bumble Bee and Tri Marine.

But that doesn’t keep worldwide tuna sector sources from playing the speculation game with no firm conclusion since the news emerged that Bumble Bee’s private equity owner, Lion Capital, is eyeing a hefty payoff from a planned sale, to the tune of $1.5 billion, making it a game for the really big boys.

Thai Union, which formerly operated in American Samoa as Samoa Packing would stand to take a frontline position in the American tuna sector with the acquisition of Bumble Bee, reducing the market down to two, since it already controls the Chicken of the Sea brand in the US.

Industry analyst Youssef Abboud told fishing industry news service, Undercurrent News, that he estimates StarKist’s share of the US market at 36%, Bumble Bee’s at 25% and Chicken of the Sea’s at 20%.

“If Thai Union can deal with potential antitrust problems and acquires Bumble Bee, the US canned tuna industry could be shared largely between two key players, Starkist being the other,” wrote Abboud, in a report the fishing industry publication acquired.

Undercurrent News reporter Tom Seaman questions whether or not Dongwon can play in this game — not because of the money involved but because of these same antitrust laws, “Some sources feel the antitrust impact of combining the number one and two brands rules out a Dongwon move for Bumble Bee.”

A Dongwon spokeswoman declined to comment to Undercurrent  on its stance on the Bumble Bee sale, or on consolidation in the US tuna sector.

Dongwon, along with Bolton (Tri Marine) and Thai Union, has been involved in most of the major pieces of tuna deal-making in recent years.

According to Undercurrent News, Thai Union and tuna supply giant now coming into the American Samoa market, Tri Marine, were involved in a deal for Chicken of the Sea in 1997. Thai Union then bought the remaining 50% from Tri Marine and Edmund Gann, taking control of the holding, Tri Union Seafoods.

Dongwon stepped into the global spotlight when it bought StarKist from Del Monte Foods in 2008 for $363m, making it the owner of the largest US tuna brand.

“I have some doubts on the Dongwon interest in Bumble Bee, but now the cat is out of the bag, they might throw the proverbial hat in the ring. They do have deep pockets,” one tuna sector veteran told Undercurrent.

Others were more skeptical.

 “As for the sale of Bumble Bee, I think it unlikely Dongwon will go for it, although they will be watching closely to see who makes the first move, which could mobilize them,” a source said.

No matter who takes the Bumble Bee prize, Abboud is billing the Bumble Bee sale as a “game changer” for the US tuna sector.

SIDE NOTE

Despite being fierce competitors for market share, Thai Union and Bumble Bee already co-operate somewhat in the US market. Chicken of the Sea-branded cans are now produced in Bumble Bee’s Santa Fe Springs, California plant for sale on the west coast, with Bumble Bee packing for the east coast in Thai Union’s Lyons, Georgia-based plant that opened right after Thai Union closed down Samoa Packing and left the territory.